Posted February 28, 2008

It was the prospect of baby boomers retiring en masse to Florida that fueled the Florida real estate boom, and it now looks as though the actual arrival of baby boomer retirees over the next few years will be what it takes to help the Sarasota real estate market rebound from its current doldrums.

Speaking at a forum sponsored by the University of South Florida's Institute for Public Policy and Leadership, Brad Edmondson, the former editor of American Demographics magazine, said there has been some decline in the rate of population growth in Southwest Florida as evidenced by the fact that school enrollment is 2.6% below forecasted levels.

But, Edmondson predicted that Southwest Florida and Sarasota populations will not actually decline. Once the current housing correction passes, the region will grow again thanks to an influx of new baby boomer retirees.

"The supply of retirees for the Sarasota Florida area is about to grow explosively," Edmondson said.

Though only 20% of Americans aged 60 and older move across state lines, Edmondson believes the Sarasota and Bradenton area will get more than its share.

"The number of people entering their 60s will grow 5 times as fast as during the 1990s," Edmondson said. "This is an age group that thinks Sarasota-Bradenton is a good place to live."

While some other forum participants weren't quite as positive, developer Pat Neal, President of the Lakewood Ranch-based home building company bearing his name, said he was sure that "Florida is going to continue to grow" and prosper.

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